In his latest op-ed for the British newspaper The Telegraph, Dr. Alexander Graef explains how the Ukrainian war might unfold. One year after the start of the war, he notes that some of his assumptions from last year have not materialized.
A total Russian victory can now be ruled out with a high degree of probability, states the IFSH Russia expert. Ukraine, for example, succeeded in regaining large parts of its territory last year. Alexander Graef attributes this to three factors: the performance of the Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield, operational mistakes by the Russian army and the extensive financial and military support of the West.
Thus, while Russia's total victory is now unlikely, the exact outcome of the war was still uncertain, he said. Nevertheless, many thousands of people have already lost their lives in this conflict and many war crimes were committed.
In his opinion piece, Alexander Graef presents four scenarios, "War Forever," "Ceasefire," "Russian Consolidation," and "Ukrainian Victory" and discusses their preconditions and implications. However, all possible developments would have one thing in common: The security situation in Europe has already changed permanently. A new Iron Curtain has emerged.
You can find the Telegraph opinion piece here.