One of the most important challenges facing the new German federal government will be accounting for the failure in Afghanistan. Today, the leading German peace research institutes publicly issued a position paper containing a summary of the 20-year military deployment, an error analysis, and clear recommendations for action to the incoming federal government and the German parliament.
One of the most important challenges facing the new German federal government will be accounting for the failure in Afghanistan. Today, the leading German peace research institutes publicly issued a position paper containing a summary of the 20-year military deployment, an error analysis, and clear recommendations for action to the incoming federal government and the German parliament.
The Afghanistan mission marked a grave turning point in Germany’s foreign, security and development politics. It was the first time the NATO mutual defence clause was invoked. And never before had the Federal Republic of Germany been involved to such an extent in a mission whose aims were to fight terrorism, suppress rebellion and engage in state building -- aims which were, in retrospect, too ambitious. Over the course of 20 years, the “War on Terror” claimed more than 900,000 human lives and cost eight trillion dollars.
The new federal government will have to account for the West’s spectacular failure in the Hindu Kush. Germany’s leading peace research institutes, which publish the acclaimed Peace Report once a year, made their position on the topic publicly known today. In a special position paper, directors of the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC), the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH) and the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) at the University of Duisberg-Essen expound the Afghanistan mission. They ask: What factors led to the ultimate failure of the mission despite interim successes? And what lessons for future operations abroad does Afghanistan hold for the incoming federal government?
Experience in Afghanistan only somewhat applicable to other missions
The peace researchers call on the government to now make an independent, inter-agency reassessment of Germany’s involvement in international missions its highest priority. Future deployments should be re-examined with a critical eye during the ongoing missions themselves so that changes can be made if necessary. Afghanistan provides an important point of reference here. However, what happened there cannot be fully applied to other overseas missions. The Afghanistan mission was one of the toughest cases for an internationally supported state building project, and the mission conditions were particularly challenging from the beginning.
Take into account minimum requirements for missions
Defeat in Afghanistan does not mean that other missions are doomed to fail as well. Over the years, experience has shown that multilateral missions in post-conflict states can in fact promote peace and contribute to the rebuilding of the country. But for this to happen, the researchers conclude, certain prerequisites must be fulfilled. These include the existence of a minimum of political stability in the country, a functioning state infrastructure, and a local population that support the mission’s stabilisation and rebuilding aims.
Be clear about the risks and set realistic goals
Even under optimal conditions, however, such missions always carry risks. These risks should be planned for and clearly communicated from the outset, as should effective exit strategies as well as the danger of a possible defeat. These strategies should also include measures for interacting responsibly with local forces.
Another lesson from the Afghanistan mission is the realisation that it was a failure to concentrate primarily on the expansion of the country’s military and police force while simultaneously neglecting the civil sector. In addition, in the fight against international terrorism, Germany should take a clear line on illegitimate actors and practices. But above all, the researchers call for mission goals to be both realistic and clearly communicated.
Strengthening European skills and capabilities
Germany was not alone in being poorly prepared for the Afghanistan mission -- the European Union also made a poor showing in its role as security policy actor. In particular, the dramatic evacuation at the end of the mission once again illustrated the EU’s military dependency on the United States. The editors of the Peace Report appeal to Europe to strengthen its civil as well as military capabilities as soon as possible.
The complete position paper, as well as analyses and chapters that appeared in the annual Peace Report since the beginning of the Afghanistan mission, can be found on the Peace Report website under: friedensgutachten.de
The joint press release (in German) from 30 September can be found here.
The special position paper was reported on by the Frankfurter Rundschau, among others.
Contact
Dr Stefan Kroll
kroll@hsfk.de
Telephone +49 163 7818460
www.friedensgutachten.de
Twitter: @PeaceReport #friedensgutachten