On 12 June, Dr Wolfgang Zellner (IFSH) presented together with Dr Marc Finaud (GCSP) and Dr Hajo Schmidt (HSFK) the so-called RISK Study* at the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs in Berne. The event was facilitated by Dr Lisa Watanabe and Benno Zogg by the Center for Security Studies at the ETH Zurich. The presentations met great interest. Discussions quickly focused on the questions how one could broaden the support for conventional arms control in Europe, and in particular, how to convince people in the Baltics and Poland, and which ideas could be brought to the OSCE in a more short-term perspective. It was particularly encouraging that three parts of the EDA auditorium consisted of young female diplomats.
The starting point of the RISK Study is the realization that the dominant military risks in Europe are no longer large-scale offensive action on a continental scale, but the “eventuality of cross-border offensive operations in sensitive areas where Russian and NATO armed forces may directly engage with each other. This is particularly acute in the Baltic and Black Sea areas.” The report addresses most dangerous aspects of using arms control elements for containing the risks of potentially escalating crises in Europe. The debate in Vienna showed once again the highly controversial, partly mutually exclusive positions of the European governments. The RISK Study and the power breakfast were another track II contribution of the Network to make each other more familiar with these positions.
*Wolfgang Zellner (Co-ordinator) et. al., Reducing the Risk of Conventional Deterrence in Europe. Arms Control in the NAT-Russia Contact Zones, Vienna, December 2018.