China has massively expanded its military and nuclear arsenal in recent years. Projections by the US Department of Defense assume that China could have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, with a possible further increase to up to 1,500 warheads by 2035. Additionally, the People’s Republic is investing in a comprehensive modernisation of its conventional armed forces and has built the world’s largest navy in term of number of ships. The air force was also substantially expanded. China says it intends to establish a "world-class army" in this branch of the armed forces by 2049.
These developments raise questions about China’s motives and strategic goals, especially regarding its increasingly aggressive policies in the region (e.g. in the South China Sea) and beyond. There is growing doubt whether China will permanently adhere to its policy of not using nuclear weapons first (No-First-Use). The constantly increasing military expenditures – estimated to be significantly higher than officially stated – and the development and deployment of new ballistic intercontinental missiles intensify geopolitical tensions. This could lead to a new arms race with the US.
About 20 security and China experts from academia, ministries, and think tanks have examined the security policy challenges that these developments pose for Germany, Europe, and the transatlantic alliance.
Prof. Dr May-Britt Stumbaum (Director, The SPEAR Institute and Center for Intelligence and Security (CISS) at the Bundeswehr University Munich), Rafael Loss (ECFR), Dr Markus Schiller (ST-Analytics, Munich) and Dr Sabine Mokry (IFSH) first introduced the main topics: China's conventional and nuclear armament, its drivers and motives. Additionally, they deliberated on how China’s armament initiatives affect the transatlantic alliance and what possible arms control policy measures should be taken.
The event was moderated by two the IFSH researchers: Dr Sabine Mokry und Wolfgang Rudischhauser.
Based on the keynote speeches, the participants discussed possible approaches for integrating China into arms control or transparency measures and drafted recommendations for action for the new German government. It would be important to expand existing dialogue formats with China in the field of arms control at both the official and academic level. The aim is to strengthen security policy expertise on China in academia as well as in parliament and government in Germany. Finally, the growing discrepancy between routine disarmament rhetoric and China's actual actions in the military and nuclear fields should be addressed at all levels, they demanded.